Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
